Yesterday, Midsize “Somey” Jake commented, “Surely by 2109, all of this gender-related conflict will be behind us?”
So that got me thinking. What can we infer from the statistics. We had all kinds of surveys from the WMF, so why not put some of them to use.
I was going to do the calculations on the back of a napkin, like some blogs do with their breakfast calculation posts, but unfortunately I have spilled some coffee and the napkin is now a bit damp.
So I have delegated the task to my Evil Twin, who has outsourced the task to one of the other twins who runs the Desk’s statistics department. I’m not really sure who did the analysis, since yesterday Andrew Brundle of AB Website Design Bangkok came by acting all mean and dropped a bunch of c-bombs in the comments, and the other twin is already really shy, but now she is so utterly terrified she will not even reveal her pseudonym.
But here is the calculation.
The answer is that women will disappear from Wikipedia completely by 2028, unless they are quickly replaced by men impersonating women.
I like it when people show their work. Then you can use their research to see if the results can be replicated. In this case the research was based on published WMF data, see Global Wikimedia survey: the number of women users drops to an all-time low of 9%. The drawing was done in 3D Paint with a 5 pixel marker, which I believe is the default, and which I believe produces an annoying popup on the desktop, so this may be the last time we see this methodology.
In case anyone wants to snatch it for nefarious purposes, I have cleaned it up a little, and added the copyright info. 😉
Always happy to help the folk over at Wikipediocracy whenever they have a burning question about gender.